The share

The global economy has maintained relatively solid growth during the third quarter of 2026, despite the persistence of geopolitical tensions, rising energy costs due to the prolongation of conflicts in the Middle East, and the increase in long-term sovereign yields. Investment linked to artificial intelligence, defense spending, and fiscal stimulus have continued to cushion the effect of these factors. BBVA Research leaves its global growth forecast for 2026 unchanged at 3.1%, and places it at 3.3% for 2027.

The relatively good performance of the US economy and the greater dynamism of the Eurozone explain the resilience of global growth in the third quarter. In particular, the expected GDP growth for the United States stands at 2.4% in 2026, the same forecast as in the previous scenario, and at 2.2% for the following year, supported by still solid domestic demand and investment in artificial intelligence. For the Eurozone, BBVA Research raises expected economic growth for 2026 by two-tenths of a percentage point, to 0.9%, and places it at 1.2% for 2027, to the extent that the increase in energy and financing costs is partially offset by a weaker euro. In China, the GDP growth forecast remains at 4.5% for 2026 and 4.2% for 2027, in a context of structural slowdown led by the adjustment in the real estate sector.

For its part, the resilience of demand and the maintenance of commodity prices at relatively high levels will limit the correction of inflation in the short term. In the United States, headline inflation could end 2026 slightly above 3%, leaving the annual average at around 3.3%. In the Eurozone inflation could exceed 3.5% by year-end (the annual average would be around 3%). In both economies, a progressive reduction in inflation is expected during 2027 toward average levels of 2.5%, under the assumption of a gradual moderation in energy prices. In this environment, the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have raised their reference rates. BBVA Research anticipates additional hikes before the end of 2026, up to 4.25% and 2.75%, respectively, and expects them to remain at these levels during 2027. In China, where inflation remains very contained, monetary conditions will continue to be accommodative, with reference rates at levels similar to those of 2025.

The balance of risks for the global economy remains tilted to the downside, given the uncertainty regarding the resolution of conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, the restoration of trade in the affected areas, and the performance of energy input prices. Added to this are doubts about the sustainability of public debt in several developed economies, tensions in sovereign debt yields, and the effects of protectionist measures in the areas of trade and immigration. The occurrence of extreme weather events, as well as a potential reactivation of the threat of interventionist actions by the US administration, also constitute sources of risk. Conversely, a faster normalization of energy markets and a greater impact of artificial intelligence on the productivity of the economies actively promoting its adoption are worth mentioning.

The main indexes have shown a flat performance during the third quarter of 2026. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index declined by -1.1% compared to the end of June 2026, and in Spain the Ibex 35 decreased by -0.2% in the same period, showing a better relative performance. In the United States, the S&P 500 index increased by 2.0%.

With regard to the banking sector indexes, the performance in the third quarter of 2026 was better than the general indexes in Europe. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which includes the banks in the United Kingdom, and the Euro Stoxx Banks, an index of Eurozone banks, increased by 5.6% and 5.8% respectively, while in the United States, the S&P Regional Banks sector index decreased by -7.3% in the period.

BBVA’s share price increased by 13.4% during the quarter, outperforming its sector index, closing the month of September 2026 at €24.81.

The shareholder remuneration policy contemplates that cash distributions may be combined with share buybacks, all subject to the authorization and approvals applicable at any given time¹.

Regarding cash distribution, the Annual General Shareholders' Meeting of BBVA held on March 20, 2026, approved, under item 1.3 of the Agenda, a cash distribution against the 2025 results as a final dividend for the 2025 financial year, for an amount equal to €0.60 gross per outstanding BBVA share entitled to participate in this distribution, which was paid on April 10, 2026. Thus, the total amount of cash distributions for the 2025 financial year, taking into account that in November 2025 a gross amount of €0.32 per share was distributed, stood at €0.92 gross per share.

Likewise, the BBVA Board of Directors agreed on the payment of a cash interim dividend against 2026 earnings in the gross amount of €0.37 (€0.2997 net of applicable withholding tax) for each outstanding share entitled to participate in said distribution, which was paid on October 15, 2026.

The 2026 share buyback programs comprise an extraordinary program for almost €4 billion, executed in several tranches between December 2025 and August 3, 2026. Added to this a new extraordinary share buyback program amounting to €2 billion, structured into two tranches of €1 billion each. The first of these tranches was executed between August 5 and October 1, 2026, while the execution of the second began on October 14, 2026.

On September 30, 2026, the number of BBVA shares outstanding was 5,511 million. The number of shareholders reached 648,520 and, by type of investor, 68.14% of the capital belonged to institutional investors and the remaining 31.86% was in the hands of retail shareholders.

BBVA shares are included on the main stock market indexes. At the closing of September 2026, the weighting of BBVA shares in the Ibex 35, Euro Stoxx 50 and the Stoxx Europe 600 index, were 13.73%, 3.09% and 1.05%, respectively. They are also included on several sector indexes, including Stoxx Europe 600 Banks, which includes the United Kingdom, with a weighting of 6.5% and the Euro Stoxx Banks index for the eurozone with a weighting of 10.4%. Moreover BBVA maintains a significant presence on a number of international sustainability indexes, such as, Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI), FTSE4Good or MSCI ESG Indexes.

¹ For further information, please refer to the "Share buyback programs" section in the "Capital and shareholders" chapter of the quarterly report.

Regarding the cumulative results as of the end of September 2026 by business areas, excluding exchange rate fluctuations unless otherwise specified, it is worth mentioning:

The Corporate Center recorded in the first nine months of 2026 a net attributable loss of €-974 million which represents a worsening compared to the same period of the previous year, associated with higher personnel expenses.

Lastly, and for a better understanding of the Group's activity and results, supplementary information is provided on the wholesale business, Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB), carried out by BBVA in the countries where it operates. CIB generated a net attributable profit of €3,082 million in the first nine months of 2026⁵. This result represents, excluding the impact of currency fluctuations, a 19.0% increase over the previous year, which once again reflects the strength of the Group's wholesale businesses, with the aim of offering a value proposition focused on the needs of its customers.

NET ATTRIBUTABLE PROFIT BREAKDOWN ⁽¹⁾
(PERCENTAGE. JAN.-SEP.26)

⁽¹⁾ Excludes the Corporate Center.

⁵ The additional pro forma information from CIB excludes the application of hyperinflation accounting and the Group's wholesale business in Venezuela.

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