The share

The global economy has shown greater strength than expected during the last months of 2025 given the high levels of uncertainty, trade and geopolitical tensions, and the migration restrictions of the United States administration. The negative effects of protectionist policies and high geopolitical instability would have been mitigated by lower effective tariffs than initially announced, fiscal stimulus and the strong growth in investment in artificial intelligence, particularly in the United States. The expansionary nature of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (hereinafter, the Fed), the moderate inflation, and contained energy prices would have also supported global activity.

The conflict in Iran has once again raised uncertainty and geopolitical risk, and has significantly driven up oil and gas prices. Under the assumption that the conflict is resolved in a reasonable short period and tensions in the energy and financial markets progressively moderate, BBVA Research forecasts global growth to stand at 3.2% in 2026, the same figure as in 2025. This expectation of a certain resilience in global activity rests, in part, on the upward revision of the expected growth for the United States by six tenths to 2.5% (in 2025, growth was 2.1%) due to the strong increase in investment in artificial intelligence. In the case of the Eurozone, the forecast of a gradual deceleration in activity is maintained: compared to GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025, in 2026 it could be 1.1%, in a context where the impact of tariffs, political instability in some countries in the bloc, and the rise in energy prices could be partially offset by increased spending on defense and infrastructure. The growth expected for China also remains unchanged: GDP growth in 2026 could stand at 4.5%, compared to 5% in 2025.

It is foreseeable that the rise in tariffs, the strength of demand, and the recent tensions in fuel prices will keep inflation in the United States at around 3% for much of 2026, limiting the Fed's scope for interest rate cuts. Following the cuts in 2025, which brought the benchmark rate to 3.75%, BBVA Research forecasts two additional rate cuts to 3.25%, conditioned, in any case, on the duration of the conflict in Iran and its impact on prices. In the Eurozone, the ECB is expected to keep the deposit facility interest rate unchanged (at 2%) if inflationary pressures subside once the crisis in the Middle East is contained (the headline rate could remain above 2% throughout 2026). In China, monetary conditions are likely to continue to ease given the current context of very low inflation in which it finds itself.

The balance of risks for the global economy remains weighted to the downside, with growing uncertainty following the outbreak of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. In addition to protectionist measures in trade and immigration, and the structural challenges facing Europe and China, negative factors include increased geopolitical tensions (potential interventions of the United States in Latin America, the Middle East or Greenland) and uncertainty regarding the Fed's independence and its potential impact on financial markets. A sharp increase in the prices of oil, gas, and energy-intensive goods, derived from an escalation of tensions in the Middle East, emerges as a significant source of risk. On a positive note, however, it is worth mentioning the boost in investment in artificial intelligence and its medium-term effect on the productivity of economies that promote its adoption.

The main indexes have shown a negative performance during the first quarter of 2026. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index decreased by -1.5% compared to the end of December 2025, and in Spain the Ibex 35 also decreased by -1.5% in the same period. In the United States, the S&P 500 index decreased by -4.6%.

With regard to the banking sector indexes, the performance in the first quarter of 2026 was worse than the general indexes in Europe. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which includes the banks in the United Kingdom, and the Euro Stoxx Banks, an index of Eurozone banks, decreased by -7.1% and -9.3% respectively, while in the United States, the S&P Regional Banks sector index increased by 0.4% in the period.

The BBVA share price fell by -9.0% during the quarter, underperforming its sector index, closing the month of March 2026 at €18.25.

Regarding shareholder remuneration, the Annual General Shareholders´ Meeting of BBVA held on March 20, 2026, approved, under item 1.3 of the Agenda, a cash distribution against the 2025 results as a final dividend for the 2025 financial year, for an amount equal to €0.60 gross per outstanding BBVA share entitled to participate in this distribution, which was paid on April 10, 2026. Thus, the total amount of cash distributions for the 2025 financial year, taking into account that in November 2025 a gross amount of €0.32 per share was distributed, stood at €0.92 gross per share.

Total shareholder policy contemplates that cash distributions may be combined with share buybacks, all subject to the authorization and approvals applicable at any given time¹.

On March 31, 2026 the number of BBVA shares outstanding was 5,634 million. The number of shareholders reached 660,942 and, by type of investor, 68.48% of the capital belonged to institutional investors and the remaining 31.52% was in the hands of retail shareholders.

BBVA shares are included on the main stock market indexes. At the closing of March 2026, the weighting of BBVA shares in the Ibex 35, Euro Stoxx 50 and the Stoxx Europe 600 index, were 12.1%, 2.6% and 0.9%, respectively. They are also included on several sector indexes, including Stoxx Europe 600 Banks, which includes the United Kingdom, with a weighting of 6.3% and the Euro Stoxx Banks index for the eurozone with a weighting of 10.4%. Moreover BBVA maintains a significant presence on a number of international sustainability indexes, such as, Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI), FTSE4Good or MSCI ESG Indexes.

¹ For further information, please refer to the "Share buyback programs" section in the "Capital and shareholders" chapter of the quarterly report.

According to the accumulated results of the business areas by the end of March 2026, in each of them it is worth mentioning:

The Corporate Center recorded in the first quarter of 2026 a net attributable loss of €305 million.

Lastly, and for a better understanding of the Group's activity and results, supplementary information is provided below for the wholesale business, Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB), carried out by BBVA in the countries where it operates. CIB generated a net attributable profit of €1,083 million⁵. Excluding the impact of currency fluctuations, this result represents a 24.2% increase over the previous year, which reflects again the strength of the Group's wholesale businesses, with the aim of offering a value proposition focused on the needs of its customers.

NET ATTRIBUTABLE PROFIT BREAKDOWN ⁽¹⁾
(PERCENTAGE. 1Q26)

⁽¹⁾ Excludes the Corporate Center.

⁵ The additional pro forma information from CIB excludes the application of hyperinflation accounting and the Group's wholesale business in Venezuela.

Read legal disclaimer of this report.