Mexico
Highlights
- Lending activity acceleration in the quarter, with greater dynamism of the retail segment
- Net interest income continues to grow at double digit rates
- Favorable evolution of the efficiency ratio
- Quarterly net attributable profit continues at high levels
Business activity (1)
(VARIATION AT CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATE COMPARED TO
31-12-22)
(1) Excluding repos.
Net interest income / AVERAGE TOTAL ASSETS
(PERCENTAGE AT CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATE)
Operating income
(Millions of euros at constant exchange rate)
(1) At current exchange rate: +39.9%.
Net attributable profit (LOSS)
(Millions of euros at constant exchange rate)
(1) At current exchange rate: +36.7%.
Financial statements and relevant business indicators (Millions of euros and percentage)
| Income statement | Jan.-Sep. 23 | ∆% | ∆% (1) | Jan.-Sep. 22 (2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 8,164 | 37.9 | 23.3 | 5,922 |
| Net fees and commissions | 1,626 | 38.2 | 23.6 | 1,176 |
| Net trading income | 384 | 18.8 | 6.3 | 324 |
| Other operating income and expenses | 300 | 25.7 | 12.5 | 239 |
| Gross income | 10,475 | 36.7 | 22.3 | 7,661 |
| Operating expenses | (3,175) | 30.0 | 16.3 | (2,443) |
| Personnel expenses | (1,492) | 34.6 | 20.4 | (1,109) |
| Other administrative expenses | (1,337) | 28.1 | 14.6 | (1,043) |
| Depreciation | (346) | 18.9 | 6.4 | (291) |
| Operating income | 7,300 | 39.9 | 25.2 | 5,218 |
| Impairment on financial assets not measured at fair value through profit or loss | (1,827) | 43.1 | 28.0 | (1,277) |
| Provisions or reversal of provisions and other results | (1) | (97.4) | (97.7) | (45) |
| Profit (loss) before tax | 5,472 | 40.4 | 25.7 | 3,896 |
| Income tax | (1,484) | 51.8 | 35.8 | (978) |
| Profit (loss) for the period | 3,988 | 36.7 | 22.3 | 2,918 |
| Non-controlling interests | (1) | 37.0 | 22.6 | (1) |
| Net attributable profit (loss) | 3,987 | 36.7 | 22.3 | 2,918 |
| Balance sheets | 30-09-23 | ∆% | ∆% (1) | 31-12-22 (2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash, cash balances at central banks and other demand deposits | 9,781 | (26.1) | (34.4) | 13,228 |
| Financial assets designated at fair value | 60,945 | 30.9 | 16.1 | 46,575 |
| Of which: Loans and advances | 4,162 | 176.2 | 145.1 | 1,507 |
| Financial assets at amortized cost | 94,960 | 23.0 | 9.1 | 77,191 |
| Of which: Loans and advances to customers | 86,727 | 21.8 | 8.0 | 71,231 |
| Tangible assets | 2,329 | 18.2 | 4.9 | 1,969 |
| Other assets | 5,002 | 39.2 | 23.5 | 3,593 |
| Total assets/liabilities and equity | 173,017 | 21.4 | 7.7 | 142,557 |
| Financial liabilities held for trading and designated at fair value through profit or loss | 33,063 | 28.0 | 13.5 | 25,840 |
| Deposits from central banks and credit institutions | 11,677 | 165.3 | 135.3 | 4,402 |
| Deposits from customers | 86,373 | 11.1 | (1.4) | 77,750 |
| Debt certificates | 9,189 | 18.5 | 5.1 | 7,758 |
| Other liabilities | 21,868 | 28.8 | 14.3 | 16,976 |
| Regulatory capital allocated | 10,845 | 10.3 | (2.1) | 9,831 |
| Relevant business indicators | 30-09-23 | ∆% | ∆% (1) | 31-12-22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Performing loans and advances to customers under management (3) | 87,362 | 21.7 | 8.0 | 71,788 |
| Non-performing loans | 2,385 | 23.0 | 9.1 | 1,939 |
| Customer deposits under management (3) | 85,157 | 10.4 | (2.0) | 77,117 |
| Off-balance sheet funds (4) | 52,741 | 38.1 | 22.5 | 38,196 |
| Risk-weighted assets | 88,290 | 23.1 | 9.2 | 71,738 |
| Efficiency ratio (%) | 30.3 | 31.7 | ||
| NPL ratio (%) | 2.6 | 2.5 | ||
| NPL coverage ratio (%) | 127 | 129 | ||
| Cost of risk (%) | 2.94 | 2.49 |
(1) At constant exchange rate.
(2) Balances restated according to IFRS 17 - Insurance contracts
(3) Excluding repos.
(4) Includes mutual funds, customer portfolios and other off-balance sheet funds.
Macro and industry trends
The economy continues to expand at a relatively high rate, faster than anticipated, due to the dynamism of private consumption, the resilience of the manufacturing sector, the effects on private investment of the prospects for nearshoring of industrial production outside of China and the impact of higher public spending on the construction sector, amid improved growth prospects in the United States. According to BBVA Research, GDP could grow around 3.2% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024 (in both cases, 80 basis points higher than the previous forecast). Annual inflation eased to 4.5% in September and will probably continue to gradually moderate in the coming quarters, remaining around 3.8% on average in 2024. Policy rates, which stood at 11.25% at the end of September, are expected to begin to be cut somewhat later than expected, starting at the beginning of 2024.
With respect to the banking system, at the end of August 2023 the volume of outstanding credit to the non-financial private sector increased by 10.5% in year-on-year terms, with a greater boost from the consumer portfolio (+18.2%), followed by mortgages (+10.3%) and businesses (+7.5%). Growth in total deposits remained at 8.7% in August 2023, in line with recent months. Time deposits slowed slightly in August (+15.3% year-on-year). The industry's non-performing loans remained stable at around 2.36% and capital ratios are at comfortable levels.
Unless expressly stated otherwise, all the comments below on rates of change, for both activity and results, will be given at constant exchange rate. These rates, together with changes at current exchange rates, can be found in the attached tables of financial statements and relevant business indicators.
Activity
The most relevant aspects related to the area's activity during the first nine months of 2023 were:
- Lending activity (performing loans under management) grew by 8.0% between January and September 2023 due to the positive evolution of the retail portfolio and the wholesale portfolio, the latter with better dynamics compared to the first half of 2023. The wholesale portfolio, which includes large companies and public sector, grew by 4.5%, highlighting the dynamism of the business segment (+4.0%). On the other hand, the retail portfolio grew at a rate of 10.8%, which supports the trend observed since the beginning of the year. Within this segment, consumer loans grew by 13.5%, credit cards by 12.8%, mortgage loans by 6.0%, and loans to SMEs by 17.1%. The loans portfolio continued to show a high diversification, of which 47.9% of the total correspond to the wholesale portfolio and the remaining 52.1% to the retail portfolio.
- Customer deposits under management declined between January and September of 2023 (-2.0%) due to the high rates environment and the containment of the cost of liabilities policy implemented by BBVA Mexico. The above was mainly offset by the growth of off-balance sheet funds, which was very relevant, particularly in mutual funds, which increased at a rate of 20.9% between January and September 2023.
The most relevant aspects related to the area's activity in the third quarter of 2023 were:
- Lending activity (performing loans under management) recorded a quarterly increase of 3.3%, with growth in both the wholesale and retail portfolios (+2.8% and +3.4%, respectively). During the quarter, the dynamism of the retail segment stands out as a result of the strong private consumption, which is supported by the favorable evolution of employment and the increase in real wages. In the wholesale portfolio, the public sector segment stood out, which increased by 8.9% in the third quarter.
- With regard to the asset quality indicators, the NPL ratio continues to be at comfortable levels and stood at 2.6% at the end of September 2023, which represents a growth of 9 basis points compared to the previous quarter and practical stability compared to the end of the year 2022 (+4 basis points). On the other hand, the NPL coverage ratio decreased to 127% at the end of September 2023, affected by the partial release of previous provisions, because of additional adjustments not assigned to particular clients or operations due to the performance observed in the portfolios associated with them.
- Customer deposits under management increased compared to the previous quarter (+1.9%), due to both higher demand deposits (+0.9%) and time deposits (+7.2%). On the other hand, off-balance sheet funds continued to grow at a rate of 5.9%.
Results
In Mexico, BBVA achieved a cumulative net attributable profit of €3,987m by the end of September 2023, representing an increase of 22.3% compared to the same period in 2022, mainly as a result of the significant growth in net interest income, thanks to the strong boost of the activity and the improvement in the customer spread.
The most relevant aspects of the year-on-year changes in the income statement at the end of September 2023 are summarized below:
- Net interest income recorded a significant growth (+23.3%), as a result of strong dynamism of lending activity and a price management efficiency (keeping the cost of deposits contained), with an improvement in customer spreads associated with a higher bias towards retail portfolio.
- Net fees and commissions, boosted by greater transactional banking, continued to increase at double digit (+23.6%), with growth in almost all commissions types, highlighting both credit cards and those derived from mutual funds management.
- The contribution from NTI increased (+6.3%) mainly as a result of the good performance of Global Markets, with a significant contribution from the foreign currency operations. The NTI showed a decline as a result of a bond swap operation associated with balance-sheet management.
- The other operating income and expenses line grew 12.5%, driven by the evolution of the insurance business.
- Operating expenses increased (+16.3%), with higher personnel expenses due to salary adjustments and an increase in the workforce in a context of strong growth in activity, and the increase of general expenses linked to inflation, particularly marketing and technology. Despite the above, the efficiency ratio continued to evolve favorably, with a significant improvement of 158 basis points compared to twelve months earlier.
- Loan-loss provisions increased (+28.0%), mainly due to the higher provisioning needs of the retail portfolio, mainly in consumer and credit cards, partially affected by the strong increase of these segments. For its part, the cumulative cost of risk at the end of September 2023 stood at 2.94%, which is above the one registered at the end of June 2023 (+8 basis points).
In the quarter, and excluding the exchange rate effects, BBVA Mexico generated net attributable profit of €1,324m. The good performance of the recurring income during the quarter was partially offset by a lower contribution of the NTI (mainly by the bond swap mentioned above), which, together with a somewhat higher impairment on financial assets, keeps the net attributable profit in line with the previous quarter(-0.4%).