Recent global growth has generally been higher than expected by analysts, despite the moderating trend in recent quarters.
Economic activity has benefited from the faster than expected decline in energy prices, following the sharp increase observed after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, as well as from the process of normalization of global supply chains and the dynamism of labor markets, which have contributed to the relative strength of private consumption and the service sector.
Lower energy prices and improvements in the production process bottlenecks have contributed to a reduction in headline inflation, which, in annual terms, reached 3.0% in the United States and 5.5% in the Eurozone in June. However, despite the recent slowdown in headline inflation, measures of core inflation continue to show no significant improvement.
Against this backdrop of still elevated inflationary pressures, central banks have continued to tighten monetary conditions. Although uncertainty is high, policy rates are likely to stay at restrictive levels, around 5.50% in the United States and 4.50% in the Eurozone, for a relatively long period of time. In addition, the reduction of central banks balance sheets in both regions, as well as the recent turmoil in the banking sector, are expected to contribute to the process of tightening of monetary conditions.
BBVA Research expects global growth to be 2.9% in 2023 (10 basis points higher than the previous forecast), after reaching 3.2% in 2022 and 6.1% in 2021. Recent activity data and the dissipation of supply shocks favor an upward revision of GDP forecasts for 2023 to 1.1% in the United States and 0.8% in the Eurozone (respectively 30 and 20 basis points higher than previously forecasted), while in China growth this year is most likely to be 5.7%, 50 basis points above the previous forecast mainly due to the positive impact of the easing of anti-COVID-19 policies at the beginning of 2023 and despite recent signs of moderation. Also, despite the upward revisions, the outlook for a slowdown in global growth remains, in a context where financial volatility is expected to remain relatively high and interest rates and inflation are expected to remain at higher than expected levels for a longer period.
Uncertainty remains high and a number of factors could determine the materialization of more negative scenarios than the one forecasted by BBVA Research. In particular, persistently high inflation and interest rates could generate a deep and widespread recession, as well as new episodes of financial volatility.