The share

Economic growth remained relatively solid in 2024, mainly in the United States and in the services sector. BBVA Research estimates that global GDP expanded by around 3.2% in 2024, slightly above (3.1%) the forecast three months ago. This strength comes in an environment where the public expenditure was, in general, high and labor markets remained dynamic. In a context marked by general restrictive monetary conditions, despite the process of interest rates cuts, inflation moderated during 2024. This downward trend was supported by a moderation in energy prices (despite geopolitical tensions in some producing regions), and some productivity gains (at least in the United States). Inflation also remains above the target in many geographical areas, mainly in the United States and, pushed down by services prices. The main exception is China, where the process of structural moderation in growth, particularly in domestic demand, has contributed to very low and slightly positive inflation.

Policies adopted by the new administration in the United States, on which there is high uncertainty, will be key in 2025. The expectation of additional protectionist measures and high fiscal deficits would put upward pressure on inflation and downward pressure on growth, according to BBVA Research. Thus, despite recent resilience, US growth would moderate from 2.7% in 2024 (20 basis points above the previous forecast) to 2.0% in 2025 (10 basis points below the previous forecast). The likely upturn in inflation, which closed 2024 at 2.9%, will reduce the scope for the Federal Reserve (hereinafter FED) to ease monetary conditions further. In particular, interest rates, which were cut from 5.5% to 4.5% during 2024, would converge to around 4.0% during the first half of 2025, remaining at these relatively high levels during the second half of the year, which, among other things, would contribute to the strength of the US dollar.

The possible increase in tariffs in the US would be a negative shock to the global economy, whose GDP would moderate to around 3.1% in 2025 (20 basis points lower than previously expected). In particular, it would add to the structural challenges that China and the Eurozone currently face. In this context, BBVA Research forecasts that Eurozone GDP will expand by 1.0% in 2025 (40 basis points lower than previously forecast), having grown by 0.8% in 2024 (10 basis points higher than previously forecast), and that growth in China will moderate to 4.1% in 2025 (10 basis points lower than previously forecast) from 4.8% in 2024 (20 basis points higher than previously forecast). The relative weakness of economic activity would contribute to inflation remaining contained at around 2.0% in the Eurozone and remaining low in China. Against this macroeconomic environment, additional interest rate cuts are likely to be seen in both regions. In particular, in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (hereinafter ECB), which cut deposit facility rates from 4.0% to 3.0% in the course of 2024, is expected to cut them further to around 2.0% in mid-2025.

Both geopolitical factors, including a further escalation of conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East, and possible policies of the new US administration, such as those related to foreign trade, migration flows and fiscal policy, create risks for the global macroeconomic environment. In particular, they increase the risk that inflation, and thus interest rates, will remain higher than expected. In addition, they raise the risk of lower than expected GDP growth as well as macroeconomic and financial volatility.

The main indexes have shown a positive performance in 2024. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index increased by 6.0% compared to the end of 2023, and in Spain the Ibex 35 rose by 14.8% in the same period, showing a better relative performance. In the United States, the S&P 500 index also increased by 23.3%.

With regard to the banking sector indexes, the performance during 2024 was better than the general indexes in Europe. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which includes the banks in the United Kingdom, and the Euro Stoxx Banks, an index of Eurozone banks, increased by 26.0% and 23.4% respectively, while in the United States, the S&P Regional Banks sector index rose by 15.2% in the period.

As for BBVA’s share price, it increased by 14.9% during the year, outperforming its sector index, closing 2024 at €9.45.

The BBVA share and share performance ratios

⁽¹⁾ For more information, see Alternative Performance Measures at the end of the quarterly report.

Regarding shareholder remuneration, a cash gross distribution in the amount of €0.41 per share, to be paid presumably on April as final dividend of 2024 and the execution of a Share Buyback Program of BBVA for an amount of €993m, subject to the corresponding regulatory authorizations and the communication with the program specific terms and conditions before its effective start, are expected to be submitted to the relevant governing bodies for consideration. Thus, the total distribution for the year 2024 will reach €5,027m, a 50% of the net attributable profit, of which €0.70 gross per share will be distributed in cash, taking into account the payment in cash of €0.29 gross per share paid in October 2024 as interim dividend of the year.

On December 31, 2024 the number of BBVA shares outstanding was 5,763 million. The number of shareholders reached 714,069, and by type of investor, 63.02% of the capital was held by institutional investors and the remaining 36.98% was in the hands of retail shareholders.

BBVA shares are included on the main stock market indexes. At the end of December 2024, the weighting of BBVA shares in the Ibex 35, Euro Stoxx 50 and the Stoxx Europe 600 index, were 9.5%, 1.6% and 0.5%, respectively. They are also included on several sector indexes, including Stoxx Europe 600 Banks, which includes the United Kingdom, with a weighting of 5.3% and the Euro Stoxx Banks index for the eurozone with a weighting of 9.0%. Moreover BBVA maintains a significant presence on a number of international sustainability indexes, such as, Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI), FTSE4Good or MSCI ESG Indexes.