Risk management



Credit risk


The evolution of the macroeconomic environment during 2024 has been uneven in the regions where the Group is present. In Spain, growth forecasts for 2024 have been revised upwards during 2024, the annual inflation has been more moderated than forecasted and is estimated to be at lower levels in 2025, the household solvency and liquidity levels remains at loose levels, whereas in Mexico, less dynamism in activity is observed in the last quarters, but unchanged in growth perspectives compared to the previous forecasts. Signs of economic normalization are observed in Turkey, and the asset quality indicators for the system remain at limited levels. Finally, South America continues moving towards macroeconomic normalization, with inflation gradually approaching the established goals and growth converging towards its potential levels.

For the estimation of expected losses, the models include individual and collective estimates, taking into account the macroeconomic forecasts in accordance with IFRS 9. Thus, the estimate at the end of the quarter includes the effect on expected losses of updating macroeconomic forecasts, which take into account the current global environment. Additionally, the Group may complement the expected losses either by considering additional risk drivers, or by incorporating sectorial particularities or those that may affect a set of operations or borrowers, following a formal internal process established for the purpose.

BBVA Group's credit risk indicators

The evolution of the Group’s main credit risk indicators is summarized below:

  1. Credit risk increased by 5.8% in the fourth quarter of the year (+3.6% at constant exchange rates), with generalized growth in all geographical areas, highlighting the variation of Turkey, Mexico and Rest of Business. During the year, this growth was placed at 8.8% (11.7% at constant exchange rates), with origin mainly in Turkey and Rest of business.
  2. Non-performing loans decreased by 3.2% at the Group level in the last quarter of 2024 (-4.6% at constant exchange rates), helped by and a reduction in the balance in all geographical areas except for Mexico, although lower than the growth of the previous quarter. In general, this decrease was supported by high recoveries, higher volume of write-offs, portfolio sales and inflows in line with or lower than in the previous quarter, except in Turkey, which continues to be affected by the high interest rate environment. During the year, the reduction in non-performing loans stood at -3.0% (-0.4% at constant exchange rates), with a fall in Spain and Rest of Businesses, which offset the growth in other areas.

NON-PERFORMING LOANS AND PROVISIONS (MILLIONS OF EUROS)

Gráfico. Riesgos dudosos Grupo

  1. The NPL ratio stood at 3.0% in December 31, 2024, 28 basis points lower than the previous quarter, with generalized decreases in all geographical areas during the quarter and with an improvement of 37 basis points compared to the end of 2023.
  2. The NPL coverage ratio ended the quarter at 80%, an increase of 548 basis points compared to the previous quarter, and of 338 basis points compared to the end of 2023, with generalized increases in the quarter in all geographical areas supported by the reduction in non-performing loans.
  3. The cumulative cost of risk as of December 31, 2024 stood at 1.43%, remaining practically stable compared to the previous quarter, and in line with the expectations. By business areas, Mexico showed an improvement on this indicator, Spain and South America remain at levels of the previous quarter, and Rest of Business and Turkey presented improvements. Compared to the end of 2023, this ratio increased by 28 basis points, as a result of the evolution on the retail portfolios in Mexico, Turkey and South America, growth in line with Group´s profitable growth strategy.

NPL AND NPL COVERAGE RATIOS AND COST OF RISK (PERCENTAGE)

Grafico. Tasa de Mora, Tasa de Cobertura y Coste de Riesgo


CREDIT RISK (1) (MILLIONS OF EUROS)
31-12-2430-09-2430-06-2431-03-2431-12-23
Credit risk488,302461,408469,687462,457448,840
Stage 1439,209407,658414,956405,765392,528
Stage 2 (2)34,25438,42339,29840,97541,006
Stage 3 (non-performing loans)14,83915,32715,43415,71615,305
Provisions11,90511,45711,56011,94311,762
Stage 12,4342,0832,1622,1982,142
Stage 21,9021,8241,9112,1302,170
Stage 3 (non-performing loans)7,5697,5507,4867,6157,450
NPL ratio (%) 3.03.33.33.43.4
NPL coverage ratio (%) (3)8075757677

(1) Includes gross loans and advances to customers plus guarantees given.

(2) During 2024, the criteria for identifying significant increases in credit risk were reviewed and updated. As part of this update, certain short-term portfolio operations, as well as those meeting the expanded definition of the low credit risk exception, were excluded from transfer based on quantitative criteria. These changes have led to a significant reduction in the Stage 2 balance at the Group level during the last quarter of the year, with the impact of these measures primarily concentrated in BBVA, S.A.

(3) The NPL coverage ratio includes the valuation adjustments for credit risk throughout the expected residual life in those financial instruments that have been acquired (mainly originating from the acquisition of Catalunya Banc, S.A.). If these valuation corrections had not been taken into account, the NPL coverage ratio would have also stood at 80% as of December 31, 2024.

NON-PERFORMING LOANS EVOLUTION (MILLIONS OF EUROS)
4Q24 (1)3Q24 2Q241Q244Q23
Beginning balance15,32715,43415,71615,30514,864
Entries3,1083,0362,9273,1843,038
Recoveries(2,582)(1,730)(1,50)(1,530)(1,373)
Net variation 526,01,3071,4271,6551,665
Write-offs(1,178)(953)(1,212)(1,216)(983)
Exchange rate differences and other165(460)(498)(27)(241)
Period-end balance14,83915,32715,43415,71615,305
Memorandum item:
Non-performing loans14,21114,59014,67214,93814,444
Non performing guarantees given628737761778862

(1) Preliminary data.

Structural risks


Liquidity and funding

Liquidity and funding management at BBVA promotes the financing of the recurring growth of the banking business at suitable maturities and costs using a wide range of funding sources. BBVA's business model, risk appetite framework and funding strategy are designed to reach a solid funding structure based on stable customer deposits, mainly retail (granular). As a result of this model, deposits have a high degree of insurance in each geographical area being close to 55% in Spain and Mexico. It is important to note that, given the nature of BBVA's business, lending is mainly financed through stable customer funds.

One of the key elements in the BBVA Group's liquidity and funding management is the maintenance of large high-quality liquidity buffers in all geographical areas. In this respect, the Group has maintained during the last 12 months an average volume of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) of €130.6 billion, of which 97% corresponded to maximum quality assets (level 1 in the liquidity coverage ratio, LCR).

Due to its subsidiary-based management model, BBVA is one of the few major European banks that follows the Multiple Point of Entry (MPE) resolution strategy: the parent company sets the liquidity policies, but the subsidiaries are self-sufficient and responsible for managing their own liquidity and funding (taking deposits or accessing the market with their own rating). This strategy limits the spread of a liquidity crisis among the Group's different areas and ensures the adequate transmission of the cost of liquidity and financing to the price formation process.

The BBVA Group maintains a solid liquidity position in every geographical area in which it operates, with ratios well above the minimum required:

  1. The LCR requires banks to maintain a volume of high-quality liquid assets sufficient to withstand liquidity stress for 30 days. BBVA Group's consolidated LCR remained comfortably above 100% during 2024 and stood at 134% as of December 31, 2024. It should be noted that, given the MPE nature of BBVA, this ratio limits the numerator of the LCR for subsidiaries of BBVA S.A. to 100% of their net outflows, therefore, the resulting ratio is below that of the individual units (the LCR of the main components was 156% in BBVA, S.A., 146% in Mexico and 141% in Turkey). Without considering this restriction, the Group's LCR ratio was 162%.
  2. The net stable funding ratio (NSFR) requires banks to maintain a stable funding profile in relation to the composition of their assets and off-balance sheet activities. The BBVA Group's NSFR ratio stood at 127% as of December 31, 2024.

The breakdown of these ratios in the main geographical areas in which the Group operates is shown below:

LCR AND NSFR RATIOS (PERCENTAGE. 31-12-24)
BBVA, S.A.MexicoTurkeySouth America
LCR156%146%141%All countries >100
NSFR119%131%149%All countries >100

In addition to the above, the most relevant aspects related to the main geographical areas are the following:

  1. BBVA, S.A. has maintained a strong position with a large high-quality liquidity buffer, having repaid the entire TLTRO III program, maintaining at all times the regulatory liquidity metrics well above the set minimums. During 2024, commercial activity showed a strong dynamism, experiencing growth in lending, higher than growth in customer deposits.
  2. BBVA Mexico shows a solid liquidity situation, even though the credit gap increased in 2024 as a result of the strong dynamism of credit and a contained growth in fund gathering as a result of management efforts to contain the cost of funds. However, the last quarter of the year saw a recovery in the growth of customer funds due to the usual seasonal nature of the end of the year.
  3. In Turkey, in 2024, the lending gap in local currency grew, with loan growth outpacing deposits. Regarding the credit gap in foreign currency, an increase was also recorded in 2024, mainly originated by an increase in loans and the decrease on deposits. The liquidity buffer has been reduced, mainly due to the reserve requirement and the mentioned increase in credit gap. On the other hand, the Central Bank of Turkey has continued updating the measures to continue with the dedollarization process of the economy and control the inflation.
  4. In South America, the liquidity situation remains adequate throughout the region. In BBVA Argentina, the growth of excess liquidity in Argentine pesos slowed, thanks to the increase in loans in the quarter above the deposits. In BBVA Colombia, the credit gap decreased throughout the year with a growth in deposits much higher than loans. BBVA Peru has shown a decrease in lending gap in 2024 with a growth in deposits higher than loans in both in local currency and in U.S. dollars.

The main wholesale financing transactions carried out by the BBVA Group during 2024 are listed below:

IssuerType of issueDate of issueNominal (millions)CurrencyCouponEarly redemptionMaturity date


BBVA, S.A.
Senior preferred Jan-241,250EUR3.875%Jan-34
Tier 2Feb-241,250EUR4.875%Nov-30 to Feb-31Feb-36
Senior preferredMar-241,000USD5.381%Mar-29
Senior non-preferredMar-241,000USD6.033%12479Mar-35
Senior preferred
(green bond)
Mar-241,000EUR3.500%Mar-31
Senior preferredJun-241,000EUR3 month Euribor rate
+ 45 basis points
Jum-27
Senior preferredJun-24750EUR3.625%Jun-30
AT1 (CoCo)Jun-24750EUR6.875%Dec-30 to Jun-31Perpetual
Tier 2Aug-241,000EUR4.375%May-31 to Aug-31Aug-36

Additionally, BBVA, S.A. redeemed two capital issuances in the first half of 2024: in February 2024, a Tier 2 issuance in February 2019, for an amount of €750m and, in March 2024, an AT1 issued in 2019 on its first date of optional redemption, for an amount of €1 billion. In addition, in December, the redemption of a Tier 2 issue of subordinated bonds issued in January 2020 in the amount of €1 billion, effectively realized in January 2025, was announced. During January 14, 2025 BBVA, S.A. issued an AT1 for an amount of USD 1 billion, with an early redemption option after seven years and on the 28th announced its irrevocable decision to redeem in whole an AT1 issued in 2019 worth USD 1 billion the next March 5, 2025..

BBVA Mexico issued in January 2024, Tier 2 bonds for USD 900m with a maturity of 15 years and an early repayment option in 10 years with a coupon of 8.125%. Additionally, on April 10 2024, BBVA Mexico issued bank stock certificates for 15 billion Mexican pesos in two tranches. In addition, in September 2024, BBVA Mexico carried out a debt issue of USD 600m on international market for a term of five years and a fixed rate of 5.25%. Lastly, in October 2024, BBVA Mexico issued local bonds for 15.98 billion Mexican pesos in three tranches, one of them for USD 200m. The high participation and diversification achieved reaffirmed the confidence and interest of investors in BBVA Mexico.

In Turkey, Garanti BBVA issued two Tier 2 subordinated instruments in 2024, the first in February for USD 500m, with a coupon of 8.375% and a ten-year term, with an early redemption option in five years, and the second one in December for a total amount of USD 750m and a coupon of 8.125%, with a ten-year maturity and a repurchase option after five years. Simultaneous to the latter issue, a 5-day repurchase offer on a Tier 2 subordinated bond maturing in 2027 (USD 750m) was issued to the holders of the USD 134m bond and in December, announced the full redemption of a Tier 2 for 750m Turkish lira, to execute in February. Additionally, in June 2024, Garanti BBVA renewed the total syndicated loan based on environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria, which consists of two separate tranches of USD 241m (SOFR+2.50%) and €179m (Euribor+2.25%), respectively. Finally, in December of the same year, Garanti BBVA announced the signing of a syndicated loan worth USD 244m (SOFR +1.75%) and €162.4m (Euribor +1.5%), with maturity at 367 days.

For its part, BBVA Peru issued in March 2024 a subordinated Tier 2 bond on the international market for USD 300m, with a 6.20% coupon, a 10.25-year maturity and an early redemption option in the fifth year. In parallel with this issue, a repurchase offer was also made on a USD 300 million Tier 2 subordinated bond with maturity in September 2029 for a participation of USD 163 million; the remaining USD 137 million were redeemed by executing the associated call option in September. In December signed the contract with the Inter-American Development Bank (hereinafter IDB) and the Development Finance Corporation (COFIDE) for the first tranche of a USD 100m social bond for a term of 5 years at SOFR+1.35%.

BBVA Colombia, together with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the IDB, issued in the second half of the year a three-tranche green biodiversity bond for an amount of USD 70m and a term of three years. Also on the subject of biodiversity, it received a loan from CAF in the amount of USD 50 million for a term of 5 years. Lastly, in November the first tranche of a USD 50 million subordinated bond (Tier 2) with the IDB was paid out.

BBVA Argentina issued in September, in the local market, 24.5 billion Argentine pesos (equivalent to about €23m) in senior debt a variable rate of Badlar+5%. With this issuance BBVA Argentina reopens the debt market in which it has not participated since 2019. Additionally, in December, two senior debt issues were made, one for an amount of 15,088m Argentine pesos (equivalent to about €14m) at a MET rate of 2.75% and the other for an amount of 37,707m Argentine pesos (equivalent to €35m) at a TAMAR rate of +2.74%.

In conclusion, 2024 has become one of the most active years in wholesale funding issuance in the history of BBVA, S.A., with about €8.9 billion funded in nine tranches. If we also consider the issuance activity of BBVA Mexico, BBVA Turkey, BBVA Peru and BBVA Colombia, this access to international markets increases by USD 3.47 billion, which shows the strength of the Group´s access to wholesale markets from its main issuance units.

Foreign exchange

Foreign exchange risk management aims to reduce both the sensitivity of the capital ratios and the net attributable profit variability to currency fluctuations.

The performance of the Group's main currencies during 2024 has been uneven. Due to its relevance for the Group, it should be noted the evolution of the Mexican peso, which has depreciated 13.1% against the euro with emphasis after the June 2024 presidential elections. Turkish lira also experienced a relevant depreciation (-11.1%), although is much less than the cost of hedging the currency. For its part, the US dollar appreciated 6.4% in the year, with a revaluation in the last quarter of 7.8% mainly due to the United States elections.

Peruvian sol also appreciated by 5.2%. On the other hand, the Colombian and Argentinean peso depreciated 7.8% and 16.8% respectively, against the euro.

EXCHANGE RATES
Year-end exchange rates
Average exchange rates
Currency
/Euro
∆ % of the
currency
against
∆ % of the
currency
against
Currency
/Euro
∆ % of the
currency
against
31-12-2431-12-2330-09-2420242023
U.S. dollar1.03896.47.81.0822(0.1)
Mexican peso21.5504(13.1)2.019.8220(3.2)
Turkish lira (1)36.7372(11.1)4.2
Peruvian sol3.90275.26.34.0546(0.3)
Argentine peso (1)1,072.66(16.8)1.3
Chilean peso1,035.22(5.6)(3.1)1,020.53(11.0)
Colombian peso4,580.67(7.8)1.84,405.476.2

(1) According to IAS 21 "The effects of changes in foreign exchange rates", the year-end exchange rate is used for the conversion of the Turkey and Argentina income statement.

In relation to the hedging of the capital ratios, BBVA aims to cover, in aggregate, 70% of its subsidiaries' capital excess. The sensitivity of the Group's CET1 fully loaded ratio to 10% depreciations in major currencies is estimated at: +20 basis points for the U.S. dollar, -9 basis points for the Mexican peso and -4 basis points for the Turkish lira12. With regard to the hedging of results, BBVA hedges between 40% and 50% of the aggregate net attributable profit it expects to generate in the next 12 months. For each currency, the final amount hedged depends, among other factors, on its expected future evolution, the costs and the relevance of the incomes related to the Group's results as a whole.

Interest rate

Interest rate risk management seeks to limit the impact that BBVA may suffer, both in terms of net interest income (short-term) and economic value (long-term), from adverse movements in the interest rate curves in the various currencies in which the Group operates. BBVA carries out this work through an internal procedure, pursuant to the guidelines established by the European Banking Authority (EBA), with the aim of analyzing the potential impact that could derive from a range of scenarios on the Group's different balance sheets.

The model is based on assumptions intended to realistically mimic the behavior of the balance sheet. The assumptions regarding the behavior of accounts with no explicit maturity and prepayment estimates are specially relevant. These assumptions are reviewed and adapted at least once a year according to the evolution in observed behaviors.

At the aggregate level, BBVA continues to maintain a limited risk profile in line with the target set in the environment of the change of cycle to lower interest rates, with positive sensitivity to interest rate rises in net interest income.

During 2024, the actual and expected evolution of inflation, as well as the response of central banks to it, as well as the geopolitical events, have been the focus of attention of the market. In this sense, expectations regarding the number of rate cuts and the speed of these have been changing throughout the year, with some episodes of volatility.

Thus, while the ECB began its reduction cycle in June and continued in its September, October and December meetings, the FED did so in September with an initial cut of 50 basis points, followed by an additional cut of 25 basis points in its November meeting. For the year as a whole, the rate yield curve experimented a slope increase, in general with declines in the short end of the yield curve and increases in the longer ones. For their part, peripheral rate curve spreads remain well supported narrowing during the year. The steepening observed in the U.S. and European curves also spread to Mexico and to a great part of South America. Turkey, for its part, experienced an increase in rates in the year, both real and nominal. However, the Group's fixed income portfolios performed heterogeneously during the year, highlighting the increase in Spain's valuation while Turkey's fell. By geographical areas:

  1. Spain has a balance sheet characterized by a lending portfolio with a high proportion of variable-rate loans (mortgages and corporate lending) and liabilities composed mainly by customer demand deposits. The ALCO portfolio acts as a management lever and hedge for the balance sheet, mitigating its sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations. In an environment of high rates, the exposure of the net interest income to movements in interest rates remains limited.
    The benchmark interest rate in the euro area stood at 3.15% at the end of December 2024, the rate on the deposit facility at 3.00% and the rate on the marginal lending facility at 3.40%. In addition, as announced in March, in September the ECB reduced the spread between the benchmark interest rate and the deposit facility rate by 15 basis points. As for reinvestments under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), they were completely interrupted at the end of 2024.
  2. Mexico continues to show a balance between fixed and variable interest rates balances, which results in a limited sensitivity to interest rates fluctuations. Among the assets that are most sensitive to interest rate changes, the commercial portfolio stood out, while consumer and mortgage portfolios are mostly at a fixed rate. With regard to customer funds, the high proportion of non-interest bearing deposits, which are insensitive to interest rate movements, should be highlighted. The ALCO portfolio is invested primarily in fixed-rate sovereign bonds with limited durations. The monetary policy rate stood at 10.00% at the end of 2024, 125 basis points below the end of 2023.
  3. In Turkey, the sensitivity of deposits is offset by the ALCO portfolio and loans (fixed rate and relatively short-term). The sensitivity of the net interest income remains limited thanks to the different efforts carried out by the Bank. During 2023, the Central Bank of the Turkish Republic (CBRT) implemented successive increases in monetary policy rates, increasing the interest rates to 42.50% at the end of December of that year. Subsequently, after keeping the benchmark interest rates at 50% until November 2024, they were reduced to 47.50% at the end of December 2024. It is expected that the CBRT will continue to reduce the policy rates, which would be positive for the customer spread in 2025.
  4. In South America, the sensitivity of net interest income continues to be limited, since most of the countries in the area have a fixed/variable composition. In addition, in balance sheets with several currencies, the interest rate risk is managed for each of the currencies, showing a very low level of exposure. Regarding benchmark rates, in Peru it stood at 5.00% as of December 2024, 175 basis points below its 2023 closing level while in Colombia, the central bank carried out three consecutive interest rate cuts, placing the benchmark interest rate at 9.50%, accumulating a cut of 350 basis points in 2024. In Argentina, the central bank maintains the benchmark interest rate at 32%, which is a decrease of 68 basis points compared to the end of December 2023.

INTEREST RATES (PERCENTAGE)
31-12-2430-09-2430-06-2431-03-2431-12-2330-09-2330-06-2331-03-23
Official ECB rate (1)3.153.654.254.504.504.504.003.50
Euribor 3 months (2)2.833.433.733.923.943.883.542.91
Euribor 1 year (2)2.442.943.653.723.684.154.013.65
USA Federal rates4.505.005.505.505.505.505.255.00
TIIE (Mexico)10.0010.5011.0011.0011.2511.2511.2511.25
CBRT (Turkey) 47.5050.0050.0050.0042.5030.0015.008.50

(1) As announced on 13 March 2024, certain changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy will take effect from 18 September 2024. In particular, the spread between the rate on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rate was reduced to 15 basis points. The spread between the interest rate on the marginal lending facility and the rate on the main refinancing operations will remain unchanged at 25 basis points.

(2) Calculated as the month average.

12 This sensitivity does not include the cost of capital hedges, which are currently estimated at 3 basis points per quarter for Mexican peso and 2 basis points per quarter for Turkish lira.

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